Can leveraged ETFs go to zero?
Leveraged ETF prices tend to decay over time, and triple leverage will tend to decay at a faster rate than 2x leverage. As a result, they can tend toward zero.
While a traditional ETF typically tracks the securities in its underlying index on a one-to-one basis, a LETF may aim for a 2:1 or 3:1 ratio. Leverage is a double-edged sword since it can lead to significant gains, but can also lead to significant losses.
But can a leveraged ETF go negative? No. If you own a leveraged ETF you can't lose more than your initial investment amount. You would never be liable for more than you invested; in a sense, the amount you could lose is capped.
Sell. Until the ETF stops trading, you can sell shares like normal. The fund will continue to track its underlying index, which helps ensure its price won't plummet to zero just because of the closure announcement.
Investors who trade with leverage can lose more money than they have in their accounts. If the value of your investment falls by 50%, for example, and the leverage ratio is 1:100, you will lose all of your money.
A leveraged ETF uses derivative contracts to magnify the daily gains of an index or benchmark. These funds can offer high returns, but they also come with high risk and expenses. Funds that offer 3x leverage are particularly risky because they require higher leverage to achieve their returns.
Market Risk and Diversification
While the value of QQQ can fluctuate due to market conditions, it's unlikely to go to zero under normal circ*mstances.
Nearly all leveraged ETFs come with a prominent warning in their prospectus: they are not designed for long-term holding. The combination of leverage, market volatility, and an unfavorable sequence of returns can lead to disastrous outcomes.
The two major risks associated with leveraged ETFs are decay and high volatility. High volatility translates to high risk. Decay emanates from holding the ETFs for long periods.
These investors may not understand that a 200% or 300% leveraged ETF doubles or triples the underlying index returns only over very short holding periods and that these leveraged ETFs are likely to return substantially less than double or triple the underlying index returns over holding periods longer than a few days ...
Are concerns about leveraged ETFs overblown?
By some estimates, returns generate up to 74% less rebalancing by leveraged and inverse ETFs once capital flows are taken into account. As a consequence, the potential for these types of products to exacerbate volatility should be much lower than many claim.
The Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3x Shares (JNUG) and the Direxion Daily Junior Gold Miners Index Bear 3x Shares (JDST) are the two most volatile exchange-traded funds of all. Each has a one-year volatility reading of about 170.
![Can leveraged ETFs go to zero? (2024)](https://i.ytimg.com/vi/ut61bgk_15M/hq720.jpg?sqp=-oaymwEcCNAFEJQDSFXyq4qpAw4IARUAAIhCGAFwAcABBg==&rs=AOn4CLAe0NU8pXGJusV-9wH09LjqIxkUPA)
"Leveraged and inverse funds generally aren't meant to be held for longer than a day, and some types of leveraged and inverse ETFs tend to lose the majority of their value over time," Emily says.
ETFs may close due to lack of investor interest or poor returns. For investors, the easiest way to exit an ETF investment is to sell it on the open market. Liquidation of ETFs is strictly regulated; when an ETF closes, any remaining shareholders will receive a payout based on what they had invested in the ETF.
If Vanguard ever did go bankrupt, the funds would not be affected and would simply hire another firm to provide these services.
Using leverage can result in much higher downside risk, sometimes resulting in losses greater than your initial capital investment.
Still, negative leverage is common for a number of reasons, including less upfront cash required, appreciation expectations, possible increased operational cash flows, increased yields when selling the property later, and a lack of focus on cash flow.
However, the flip side of trading with leverage is that, if the trade goes against you, your losses will be amplified as well. In other words, greater exposure leads to bigger ups and bigger downs, and you can potentially lose more than you invest.
Inverse or short ETFs are created using financial derivatives such as options or futures. They can even be created to move at two or three times the movement of the target asset. Because of how they're created, though, the value of these ETFs tends to decay over time.
The purpose of leveraged ETFs is to amplify the daily returns of an index instead of simply matching the index's performance.
What is the risk of Tqqq?
TQQQ has a draw down risk of -89.60%, which is the largest price decline experienced over the last three years. This fund has a three year standard deviation of 75.4%.
A history of outperformance. Invesco QQQ — the ETF that tracks the Nasdaq-100 index — has beaten the S&P 500 nine out of the last 10 years. Source: Morningstar Inc. Data begins 10 years prior to the ending date.
Source: Bloomberg L.P., QQQ NAV 10-year performance reflected 18.58% growth versus 12.93% by the S&P 500, as of March 31, 2024.
Invesco QQQ stock price stood at $431.00
According to the latest long-term forecast, Invesco QQQ price will hit $450 by the end of 2024 and then $500 by the middle of 2025. Invesco QQQ will rise to $600 within the year of 2026, $700 in 2028, $800 in 2029, $900 in 2031 and $1000 in 2034.
The SQQQ is meant to be held intraday and is not a long-term investment, where expenses and decay will quickly eat into returns.
References
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/leverage.asp
- https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/sp-500-etfs
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/092115/how-day-trade-using-leveraged-etfs.asp
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/best-mutual-funds/
- https://time.com/personal-finance/article/stocks-vs-etfs/
- https://www.investopedia.com/investing/qqq-vs-tqqq-difference-and-which-better/
- https://www.livemint.com/money/personal-finance/when-is-the-right-time-to-start-investing-11704734414384.html
- https://etfinsider.co/blog/can-qqq-go-to-zero
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/11/building-an-etf-portfolio.asp
- https://m.economictimes.com/mf/analysis/7-equity-mutual-fund-categories-offer-over-12-in-2023-small-caps-give-24/articleshow/104820469.cms
- https://money.usnews.com/investing/term/leveraged-etf
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/11/advantages-disadvantages-etfs.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/equityfund.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/why-bond-etfs-go-down-8303231
- https://www.titan.com/articles/etf-drawbacks
- https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/retirement/income-make-the-most-of-retirement
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/etf-beaten-p-500-9-083300152.html?ref=biztoc.com
- https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/etfs/sp500-cheap-etf-pays-off-more-than-everything-else-long-term/
- https://www.nerdwallet.com/article/investing/exchange-traded-fund-closure
- https://seekingalpha.com/article/4650703-tqqq-etf-not-time-for-leverage
- https://www.etf.com/sections/news/15-most-volatile-etfs
- https://www.investopedia.com/terms/l/leveraged-etf.asp
- https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/home.html
- https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/5QQQ:NA
- https://www.livemint.com/mutual-fund/best-mutual-funds-these-large-cap-funds-gave-over-40-return-in-the-past-one-year-investments-quant-large-cap-fund-11712405162500.html
- https://www.thestreet.com/r/ratings/reports/summary/tqqq.html
- https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2014/files/2014106pap.pdf
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/stocks/09/buying-stock-or-etf.asp
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/021615/what-safest-investment.asp
- https://cleartax.in/s/mutual-fund-calculator
- https://www.slcg.com/files/research-papers/Leveraged%20ETFs,%20Holding%20Periods%20and%20Investment%20Shortfalls.pdf
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-return-investment-roi-141300511.html
- https://m.economictimes.com/mf/analysis/these-six-equity-mutual-funds-delivered-over-30-returns-in-five-years/investment-potentials/slideshow/109597042.cms
- https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/best-safe-investments/
- https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-basics/most-popular-etfs-aum
- https://www.litefinance.org/blog/for-beginners/forex-leverage/trading-without-leverage/
- https://www.etf.com/sections/etf-basics/why-do-leveraged-etfs-decay
- https://www.trackinsight.com/en/education/how-many-etfs-should-you-own
- https://coinpriceforecast.com/qqq-stock
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/090115/7-best-etf-trading-strategies-beginners.asp
- https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/trade-ideas/the-only-leveraged-etf-that-i-would-buy-hold-long-term
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/exchangetradedfunds/09/etf-out-of-business.asp
- https://www.yieldstreet.com/blog/article/negative-leverage-in-real-estate/
- https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/leveragedetfs-alert
- https://fortune.com/recommends/investing/investing-during-a-recession/
- https://www.fool.com/the-ascent/buying-stocks/articles/heres-what-happens-when-you-only-invest-in-sp-500-etfs/
- https://www.thestreet.com/etffocus/trade-ideas/buy-this-not-that-etf-alternatives-to-qqq-qqqm
- https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/boosting-your-roe-tools-use-helaru-madduma-kaluge
- https://www.quora.com/Can-leveraged-ETFs-go-to-zero
- https://www.usatoday.com/money/blueprint/investing/best-vanguard-mutual-funds/
- https://www.etf.com/topics/aggressive
- https://www.businesstoday.in/mutual-funds/story/what-is-the-15-15-15-rule-in-mutual-funds-how-to-earn-rs-1-crore-faster-with-this-formula-check-details-426893-2024-04-25
- https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/061715/what-qqq-etf.asp
- https://www.livemint.com/mutual-fund/best-mutual-funds-these-elss-schemes-gave-over-20-per-cent-annualised-returns-in-past-3-years-should-you-invest-11713612914072.html
- https://www.quora.com/If-I-invest-1000-per-month-in-SIP-for-20-years-how-much-will-I-return-after-20-years-For-this-amount-which-fund-is-best-for-me
- https://www.marketwatch.com/tools/top-25-mutual-funds
- https://www.smartaboutmoney.co.za/saving-and-investing/exchange-traded-funds/how-quickly-can-i-get-my-money-out-of-an-etf/
- https://etfdb.com/compare/highest-5-year-returns/
- https://www.morningstar.com/etfs/etfs-2023-tale-success-failure
- https://www.bankrate.com/investing/low-risk-investments/
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direxion
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/122215/sqqq-proshares-ultrapro-short-qqq-etf.asp
- https://study.com/academy/lesson/what-is-a-leveraged-etf-decay-risk-volatility.html
- https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/what-happens-if-your-etf-closes
- https://www.bankrate.com/investing/stocks-vs-etfs/
- https://www.thestreet.com/dictionary/leveraged-etf
- https://mintgenie.livemint.com/news/personal-finance/best-large-cap-mutual-funds-6-large-cap-schemes-gave-over-12-annualised-returns-in-the-past-5-years-151692793765105
- https://www.composer.trade/etf-comparisons/QQQ-ONEQ
- https://www.forbes.com/sites/investor/2023/11/03/ulta-return-on-equity-approach-reveals-profitable-prospects/
- https://www.canstar.com.au/investor-hub/buy-sell-hold-etfs/
- https://vericrestprivatewealth.com/leveraged-etf.php
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/much-money-stock-market-75-180021414.html
- https://wiserinvestor.com/is-an-etf-more-risky-than-a-mutual-fund/
- https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/121515/why-3x-etfs-are-riskier-you-think.asp
- https://www.angelone.in/knowledge-center/trading-account/what-is-return-on-equity
- https://seekingalpha.com/article/4203362-all-leveraged-etfs-go-to-zero
- https://curvo.eu/article/etf-risk
- https://www.bdc.ca/en/articles-tools/entrepreneur-toolkit/financial-tools/return-on-shareholders-equity
- https://m.economictimes.com/mf/analysis/5-low-cost-mutual-fund-schemes-with-highest-3-year-returns-check-details/articleshow/108637688.cms
- https://www.afrugaldoctor.com/home/market-zero
- https://www.proshares.com/our-etfs/leveraged-and-inverse/tqqq
- https://www.fidelity.com/learning-center/investment-products/etf/risks-with-etfs
- https://seekingalpha.com/article/4671918-qqq-could-be-the-best-single-investment-for-the-next-20-plus-years
- https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-guide-to-the-10-most-popular-leveraged-etfs-1
- https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/04/26/what-are-the-safest-etfs-to-buy-right-now-and-how/
- https://www.invesco.com/qqq-etf/en/performance.html
- https://www.morningstar.com/news/marketwatch/20240328220/a-new-product-allows-5x-leveraged-bets-on-the-magnificent-seven-traders-should-be-wary
- https://www.bankrate.com/investing/best-investments/
- https://finance.yahoo.com/news/best-inverse-short-etfs-know-171112769.html
- https://etfdb.com/compare/dividend-yield/
- https://investor.vanguard.com/investor-resources-education/etfs/etf-vs-mutual-fund
- https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/funds/stock-market-sp500-4x-leveraged-xxxx-fund-retail-traders-returns-2023-12
- https://www.oanda.com/us-en/learn/introduction-to-leverage-trading/what-is-leverage-trading/